:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/INV_HurricaneMilton_Evacuation_GettyImages-2177330435-29aa7d84fbb7401186cb6b03970cf3f9.jpg)
Key Takeaways
- Hurricane Milton has the potential to cause tens of billions of dollars in damage, according to some estimates.
- Historically, shares of insurers have declined in the lead-up to a major storm's landfall and then recover after losses are quantified, Piper Sandler analysts wrote.
- Insurers often will reduce policy availability and raise insurance prices after a major storm.
Hurricane Ian caused about $56 billion in insured losses in 2022, but the damage from Milton could be even worse since more people have moved to coastal Florida in recent years, according to new research.
Piper Sandler in a recent report didn't have a dollar estimate, but “it is clear that there will be substantial personal, economic and insured damages,” analyst Paul Newsome wrote. Analysts at Jefferies have projected that the storm could cause tens of billions of dollars of economic losses. Much of the state is bracing for the possibility of serious disaster relief efforts.
The storm could weigh on the shares of insurance companies with heavy exposure in Florida, which Piper Sandler's note pegged as Allstate (ALL), American International Group (AIG), and Progressive (PG). Historically, shares of insurers have fallen as a hurricane approaches and recovered when the companies announce their official losses, Piper Sandler said.
Allstate stock, for example, is down 3% since Friday.
Insurers will often reduce the availability of insurance and raise policy prices after a storm to make the impact a net positive for the industry, the Piper Sandler report said. Demand for insurance is also higher in the aftermath of a bad storm, which could be particularly acute if Milton is a historically devastating hurricane, the analyst said.
Not all hurricane damage is created equal, however. Wind damage is typically covered by private insurers, Piper Sandler noted, while flood damage is largely covered by the federal government.